This is due, in part, to the fact that cold air is very dense and tends to sink south against the mean flow, and to the fact that models have a hard time in general with placement of shallow/dense-low level cold air.
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In this type of situation, usually the cold air wins out, and we do get a some sort of frontal passage. While here at DFW Weather, we are going for the warmer weather scenario for the official forecast, this forecaster will caution that Arctic air is damming up on the models in Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Last week, it looked like we were going to get another surge of Arctic air, but over the weekend, the models back off this scenario. Computer model guidance is showing temperatures rebounding well into the 70s for the Thanksgiving weekend. This will setup a beautiful Thanksgiving week for North Texas with seasonal weather. The cold front will bring temperatures down a good 15 degrees tomorrow with more seasonable weather. Therefore, the official DFW Weather forecast went with the cooler guidance number for highs today in the middle 70s. However, the ground is still very wet and will help to offset the warming a bit.
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![dfw precipitation totals dfw precipitation totals](http://pics2.city-data.com/w1q/lhaq22394.png)
High temperatures are going to be very tricky today as compression warming from the front and westerly component to the wind will support a substantial warm-up in the upper 70s. Courtesy of Accuweather.Īnother deepening storm system in Colorado will tighten the pressure gradient causing our winds to pick up out of the west today and become quite gusty out ahead of a cold front. Radar estimate of rainfall totals over the last 24 hours.